Sheela Tobben 06/07/2022

(Bloomberg) – The European Union’s ban on maritime imports of Russian oil in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine will lead to an 18% drop in the country’s fuel production by the end of the year. next year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a statement. monthly report.

Russian liquid fuel production is expected to reach 9.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 11.3 million in the first quarter of this year, according to the EIA report. The drop assumes that the European Union’s decision to halt crude oil imports will be imposed in six months and the import ban on petroleum products in eight months, and excludes any restrictions on marine insurance, it said. the agency.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February disrupted global energy flows and led to an almost immediate ban on oil imports from the US and UK when the market was already tight. Other buyers have deliberately shunned the country’s oil. Global supply shortages have kept oil prices above $100 a barrel since the start of the war and pushed retail fuel prices to record highs.

The possibility that these or other potential future sanctions will reduce Russia’s oil production more than expected adds upside risks to oil prices, the agency also said.