In his october Wheat outlook report, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) noted that âthe USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has published its Cereal stocks September 30 report, which stated that wheat stocks on September 1 of this year were the lowest for that date since 2007. Stocks this year are particularly tight based on a smaller crop, as reported in NASS Annual summary of small grains report published at the same time as the inventory report.
The Outlook report stated that “It is also noteworthy that farm stocks are estimated at lowest level since 1963. “
âNotably, the average seasonal agricultural price for 2021/22 is now projected at $ 6.70, what would be up to 33 percent of last year and the highest since 2013/14âSaid ERS.
More generally, ERS has indicated that, âGlobal Closing Actions should be down 6.0 million MT to 277.2 million in 2021/22. It’s the lowest since 2016/17 and is largely attributable to a decrease of 3.2 million metric tonnes in ending stocks of major exporters. The main exporters The 2021/22 closing stocks are expected to be 33% less than in 2016/17 to 50 million tonnes.
Bloomberg writer Megan Durisin reported on Friday that âCorn, one of the world’s vital staple foods, is more and more expensive.
âWheat is harvested on more land than any other, and its geographic distribution generally mitigates the risk of inclement weather in a given area. But an infusion of droughts, Freeze and heavy rain affected this year’s crops from Canada to the Black Sea.
“Inventories plummeted at top exporters, which makes sourcing more and more expensive for buyers.
Chicago benchmark wheat futures are nearing their highest since 2013 and the Paris milling contract is nearing a record high.
The Bloomberg article pointed out that, âIncrease in supply en route in the Southern hemisphere could help relieve pain, along with Australia due for a exceptional harvest. argentina the harvest has also just started and, even with expensive freight, its supply will compete with European cereals in North African markets, said AndrÃ©e Defois of French consultant Strategie Grains.
And Financial Times editors Emiko Terazono and Chelsea Bruce-Lockhart reported on Friday that “Wheat futures prices increased by 20% early in the year because Russia, North America and Argentina were affected by Drought, while European producers have been affected by rain. The last time wheat prices climbed to current levels was in the following the 2012 drought in the United States. “
Regarding demand, a separate Bloomberg article last week by Megan Durisin reported that “countries around the world are taking responsibility for European wheat to fastest pace ever after poor harvests at other major exporters.
“Exports from the European Union May top 11 million tonnes by the end of the month, according to Nathan Cordier, analyst at the Agritel consultant. It would be 25% more than a year earlier and most for this period of the season in EU data going back two decades. “
Mrs Durisin said that âEuropean wheat is fill the void left behind by tighter supplies elsewhere and that export taxes are slowing the wheat giant’s sales Russia. “
Meanwhile, Reuters News reported on Friday that âFarmers in France intensified fertilizer purchases this month among fears of shortage as they struggle with assembly costs this could affect next year’s crops, said the French unit of the Yara fertilizer group.
Soaring gas prices have disrupted nitrogen fertilizer markets that rely on gas as an input, leading manufacturers, including Yara, to cut production and triple fertilizer prices.
âThis raised the perspective of some farmers plant less fertilizer intensive crops like corn or spread less nutrients, add uncertainty cereal markets which reached multi-year highs in 2021 on supply problems. “
As the impact of rising input costs continues to trickle down to producers, Javier blas, the chief energy correspondent at Bloomberg News, recently tweeted about nitrogen fertilizer prices in the US corn belt and ammonia prices (see below).
TABLE OF THE DAY: The next hot political potato in the energy crisis of 2021? Price of fertilizers.
Just wait for farmers in North America and Europe to start buying for the next planting season. (Below are the prices of nitrogen fertilizers in the US corn belt) | #OATT ð½ð¾ð¿ðâï¸ð©âð¾ pic.twitter.com/4idgRcMn1h
– Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) 28 October 2021
FERTILIZER SHORTAGE: Pretty shocking increases in ammonia prices at major U.S. export sites over the past week: New Orleans spot price (NOLA) jumped 70% in seven days for hit a record high of $ 1,030 per tonne. In the United States, Tampa’s spot ammonia increased by 25%. And the prices have gone up too much abroad pic.twitter.com/nea2k1Rqxu
– Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) October 30, 2021